GAIEI: Global Trends in AI 2022 “Time in AI to reflect on what has been done, and prepare for becoming even greater geopolitical factor” (AM)
This is my short contribution to the document created in the cooperation of Global AI Ethics Institute members. A full version is available here.
“Time in AI to reflect on what has been done, and prepare for becoming even greater geopolitical factor”
General Expectation
In this year I am expecting two seemingly opposite trends In the AI industry. On one side, we might be facing “AI Winter” with many promises and optimistic plans, facing their reality. Current technologies are allowing us just to go so far in the Holy Grail of AI — creating human-level General AI. In a way, we might be at the end of the hype cycle, which could have many good sides. On the other side, many companies and projects will benefit from the investments that poured into the AI field, because of the boosted attraction we were witnessing in the last few years. My expectation is that we will see many exciting advances in specific fields and useful projects aiming to develop AI as a tool we could use to make our performance better. As one quote said — “AI will not replace humans, but humans who will be able to use AI as a support — probably will!”
Role of Ethics
That pause in the qualitative jumps could allow us to focus and reflect on all the accomplishments we did so far, and those under development, and could give us time to take a more holistic view of the projects. It is a great time to incorporate ethical perspectives and philosophy in the basics of AI development, which was, I feel, more technology-driven so far. If we create good foundations now, it will be much easier to create Responsible AI in the future. Coming year(s) will be a great time and opportunity to raise awareness of the different dimensions and origins of cultural norms and ethics, which should be considered much more than they are today. And for that, we need to have a bigger discussion and proactively involve some players/cultures/countries, that are marginalized at the moment.
My focus will be to also monitor AI development on the country level, with significant changes of AI-related Human Capital development in which some countries are making tremendous advances. How will countries compete, and what will be the impact of current stage AI projects will be something important to monitor and based on that predict future changes and dangers we might be facing. Level of investments, more active role of governments, creation of the new legal framework, the role of academy, startup communities, all of those areas will need professionals with fresh ideas and new energy. Which countries can secure them, and which will drain resources from others in this competition? What will be other significant areas of development which will compete in the same war for talent? Those are only a few questions that we need to ask.
Synergies
All that activity will consequentially create new networks of AI-connected people that will cooperate globally and internationally. At some point, the question of AI global governance could be raised. AI might gain even more important recognition as a factor in the geopolitical arena. What we already now see, is how multicultural associations could be crucial in the knowledge exchange, and in the forming of equal opportunities for those countries that are now not on the front of the AI development. The connection between the private sector, NGOs, and professional organizations will gain additional importance and could be used as a distributor of knowledge and ideas across many current borders. Global AI Ethics Institute is a proud member of a few similar structures/organizations, such as the Alliance for Responsible AI and the International Group of AI. Already now we are sure that in this year, the number of similar contacts will be even greater. I would use this opportunity to invite all interested members to contact us and establish the first contact between our organizations.
Aco Momcilovic 02/2022
