What can we predict about the development in 2023?
The year 2022 was very interesting in the field of artificial intelligence development. In my articles, I covered only a small part of the events and developments. My focus was on the opportunities for small countries that are opening up with the development of new technologies, including artificial intelligence. Decisions that can increase or decrease our lag. I have also written about the various types of dangers that artificial intelligence systems can bring, which of them are real and which are, at least currently, only public perception. Special emphasis was placed on the military application of AI and the so-called LAWS — lethal autonomous weapon systems. However, the application has not yet started on a real scale. One of the topics was the convergence of artificial intelligence with other technologies, so the synergy with IoT systems and everything that can result from this natural cooperation based on the combination of large amounts of data and computer power was also mentioned. And of course, I will always emphasize the importance of educating the general population about what artificial intelligence is and is not, what it can and currently cannot do. We have had the opportunity to see the controversy (seemingly) caused by Google’s LaMDA, which has led to even more discussions about the definitions of consciousness and awareness and what we consider a living entity. Within the Global AI Ethics Institute, we also created an extensive document in which we collected the thoughts of a number of experts from around the world. My prediction is that more work will be done on the education of all employees in the private sector as one of the steps toward a better and more frequent application of the AI system.
A segment that exploded this year is AI-generated art, i.e. systems that create images based on text input. DALL-E and Midjourney became famous among the first, but now there are already many systems with similar purposes. The quality of the visuals achieved has reached such a level that many Instagram profiles specializing in this type of images have an audience of millions. In the interview I conducted with graphic designers, it was interesting to see how almost the entire profession was unprepared for such a shift, a good part of them were not even aware of the existence of such systems. Those who are the first to adapt will start using such systems as auxiliary tools that can speed up the whole process and give them a new level of quality. For some types of images (which are generated in a few minutes), even top designers agree that for some it would take them days to create them at that level, and some are practically beyond their reach. Some of the regional examples can be followed on the Instagram profile: adria.ai.art. We can say that a small revolution has taken place, and it remains to be seen which related areas these effects will spread to in the coming period. There are already interesting examples in the automatically generated video.
In recent weeks, we have seen another interesting shift created by the GPT model. ChatGPT has taken over Twitter and almost the entire internet, thanks to its power and the meme potential it provides. We all know that the ability to generate memes is the best way to conquer the internet, and it did. ChatGPT was created by the company OpenAI and very quickly reached the figure of over 1 million users, which further accelerated its training. The possibilities of his imitating human discussion — one on one, are very interesting. On the Internet, you can find numerous positive and negative examples, from classic information to solving mathematical problems. People have also gained numerous insights from studying his mistakes.
The OECD predicts that advanced AI systems will be involved and influence environmental and ecological recommendations and decisions. The economic landscape of AI is evolving as AI becomes a general-purpose technology. Through cheaper and more accurate predictions, recommendations or decisions, AI promises to generate productivity gains, improve well-being and help solve complex challenges. Harnessing AI requires complementary investments in data, skills, and digitized workflows, as well as organizational and process changes. Therefore, adoption varies from company to industry.
Private equity investment in AI startups has accelerated since 2016, after five years of steady growth. Private equity investment doubled from 2016 to 2017, reaching $16 billion in 2017. AI startups attracted 12% of global private equity investment in the first half of 2018, reflecting a significant increase from just 3% in 2011. a trend that is visible in all major economies. These investments are usually in large multi-million dollar projects. As technologies and business models mature, AI is moving towards widespread implementation.
If I would have to choose a few fields for the next year or two, it would be those:
1. Military AI — we only scratched the surface, many projects must be under development, the question is only if they will be available to the public
2. Global Education sector — AI in general can do wonders in educating people, but even more narrowly, I think AI Business related education will emerge in greater numbers. Also education about AI fundamentals which might help people to differentiate different types of AI and their “sentience”. Probably few new institutions focusing only on AI education.
3. Entertainment industry and marketing. grounds are set, AI-generated pictures and texts are already here, and we will see how fast will they improve to even above human levels
4. Medicine — potential huge global impact, we already had some almost groundbreaking examples, and we will need more.
5. The BIG Unknown AI Application. maybe the biggest part. The segment which we couldn’t predict, but it will explode and substitute old ways in some areas. Just as we have seen in the recent 12 months. This one might be a more interesting one because there will be a small window of time to jump onto that train for those most observant and reactive. And closest to the source of development.
AI is also becoming a growing political priority for all stakeholders. Given the transformative benefits of artificial intelligence, as well as its risks, artificial intelligence becomes both a legal and a geopolitical issue. Many countries have dedicated AI strategies that see AI as an engine of growth and well-being, seek to educate and employ the next generation of researchers, and consider how best to meet the challenges of AI. Non-governmental stakeholders — business, technical organizations, academia, civil society, and trade unions — and international bodies including the G7, G20, OECD, European Commission, and United Nations are also taking action.
Considering this, the question is not whether the progress in 2023 will continue, but only whether it will be more linear and develop on the basis of existing models, or it will be exponential based on some new significant innovation. And all of those segments will have an exponential number of ethical questions, dilemmas, and frameworks to answer to create. We could only hope that it will not be dominated by any single ideology or culture.